Where Data Ends and Instinct Begins

Lee Raffey, CEO, Eye Recommend

Every leader I know is working with more data today than they had five years ago,  more dashboards, reports, and numbers competing for attention. The question I get asked most isn't how to find data; it's how to know which data to trust, and when to trust something else entirely: experience.

My background is in numbers, and so my early leadership years were focused on objective data.  In the last decade, my understanding of data has shifted: data and instinct aren't competing forces. At their best, they work together. Data should support and sharpen your instinct, not replace it. True leaders know when to lean on one over the other, after many years of seeing enough decisions play out to recognize what tends to work and what doesn't.

Start with the problem, not the numbers  

Before I look at any data point, I try to get to the root of what problem or challenge I’m trying to solve. It sounds simple, but it's easy to skip. I think back to a habit from raising kids: keep asking ‘why’ until you get past the surface issue to what's really driving it. Once you know the real problem, it becomes much easier to tell which data points matter and which ones are just noise.

This is where a lot of decisions go sideways. Too much data without a clear problem in mind leads to chasing metrics that add complexity instead of clarity. The discipline is in eliminating everything that doesn't serve the question you're trying to answer.

A meaningful benchmark versus a false alarm

Benchmarking works the same way. A benchmark is only useful if it's tied to the specific problem you're solving and the situation. The moment you lose sight of that connection, a benchmark can create a false sense of urgency, or worse, a false sense of security.  

It's also worth understanding how a metric is built or measured and where it can be manipulated or skewed, so you're not chasing a number that was never telling you the right story in the first place.

When the data pointed one way, and I went another  

I can point to a recent investment decision where this played out directly. The valuation data supported one number. But looking at where the opportunity was heading, and weighing some of the subjective, intangible factors that don't show up on a spreadsheet, led me to a different call. The outcome has been positive. Hindsight makes it look like an easy decision, but at the time, there was some hesitation.

That's the honest answer to where data ends and instinct begins; it depends on the situation. But over years of making these calls, you start to recognize the pattern of when the numbers are telling the full story and when they're missing something important.

The risk of leaning too hard on data

Over-relying on data has a real cost. It can crowd out the other parts of a decision that matter just as much: emotion, stakeholder management, and context. I'll admit my own bias here. My background is in finance, so I naturally gravitate toward the dollar figures. What's helped me most is deliberately pulling in people who see the problem differently, whether that's someone with an operational lens, an HR perspective, or an IT view.

No single lens gives you the full picture. A finance view tells you what an opportunity is worth on paper. An operational view tells you whether the team can execute on it. An HR view flags what it will cost in culture or retention. Bringing more of these perspectives to the table and knowing which ones matter for the decision in front of you produces a stronger call than sticking with the lens you know best.

Give people the data they need, not all of it

The same principle applies to how data moves through a team. Different people need different things to do their jobs well, and burying them in data they can't use doesn't help anyone.  

I've had to pull colleagues back from a flood of information more than once, not because the data was wrong, but because too much of it gets in the way of using any of it effectively. Understanding what someone needs and giving them enough to work with, rather than everything available, is part of making data useful rather than overwhelming.

What this means for your practice

Independent practice owners make this same call every day, on patient volumes, staffing, purchasing, and marketing spend. The numbers can tell you a lot. But so can the instinct you've built from running your clinic and knowing your community. The goal isn't to pick one over the other. It's to let the data sharpen what your experience is already telling you, and to trust yourself when the two point in different directions.

• Looking to refine your data points and business instincts? Connect with an Eye Recommend business coach at eyerecommend.ca. 

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